Former President Goodluck Jonathan is set to quietly decline to run for president in the much-touted 2027 election, LEADERSHIP Weekend has gathered.
A week-long investigation by this paper indicated that the former president is under pressure not to contest.
Jonathan has been named as one of the possible presidential aspirants from the southern part of the country who could square up against President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
Those clamouring for his return, particularly from the northern part of the country, are said to be relying on the fact that, having won election once—although sworn in twice—Jonathan would be constitutionally limited to governing Nigeria for only four years if he manages to defeat Tinubu in 2027.
With this, the northern elements are assured that power will return to the region in 2031, and they believe they might influence who succeeds the former president.
However, Jonathan appears not to have any viable political base, having distanced himself from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
This platform elevated him from deputy governor to governor of Bayelsa State, then to vice president and ultimately president following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua on 5 May 2010.
Since his defeat by the late President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 election, Jonathan has refused to align openly with the PDP or any other political party.
He is also not known to have a substantial political following that could mobilise the electorate in his favour or smoothen his return to the PDP, now perceived to be under the control of ‘new owners’.
His loss to Buhari in 2015 was orchestrated by the North, with support from the South-West, when the region insisted on the return of power following Yar’Adua’s death.
Jonathan’s lack of grip on the former ruling party is said to have contributed to his defeat, as he reportedly failed to take decisive actions while in office.
Our correspondent gathered that his loss was even celebrated by some members of the party’s National Working Committee—an action that reportedly infuriated Jonathan and prompted his continued estrangement from the PDP.
Political analysts say this detachment could prove to be Jonathan’s undoing, especially when compared with figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Tinubu, who maintained and even expanded their political structures long after leaving office.
Atiku, who served under President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007, has remained politically relevant despite not holding any office since.
“It is the same political structure Tinubu had as a governor that he built upon to become president in 2023. Politicians who cannot maintain a structure or cultivate enduring alliances across the country rarely succeed at the national level,” said Chief Olabode George, a PDP chieftain in Lagos.
It was learnt that Jonathan’s aloofness allowed figures like Atiku, Nyesom Wike, Bukola Saraki, and Aminu Tambuwal to dominate the PDP. The party has since splintered into factions, with major stakeholders abandoning it.
Though loyalists of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde insist he remains a viable contender for the party’s ticket, other leaders are reportedly courting Jonathan and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi.
The zoning of the PDP’s presidential ticket to the South is said to favour Jonathan, as some insiders claim Obi cannot be trusted to honour his promise to serve only one term, if elected.
Two founding fathers of the party, former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido and former Minister of Information Professor Jerry Gana, are among those pushing for Jonathan or Obi to return.
Our correspondent learnt that Lamido, who describes Jonathan as the PDP’s “best bet”, is among the northern leaders lobbying him to run.
Apart from Lamido, it was also gathered that some northern elders, emirs and influential figures have been mounting pressure on Jonathan to throw his hat into the 2027 presidential ring.
Sources revealed that, should Jonathan decide to run, the Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, may be considered as his running mate.
One source said: “It is true that some northern elders have contacted Jonathan. They are asking him to return to the PDP. But the fact remains that the former ruling party may not even receive him with open arms.
“As president, he was sabotaged. Now, as a private citizen without official clout, they will only use him. He knows some want to ride on his popularity to win elections in their constituencies, only to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC) afterwards.
“So, he is weighing many interests and variables. He won’t join the race.”
S’South Support Uncertain
Jonathan’s once-loyal political base in the South-South is now said to be fragmented, with many aligning with President Tinubu.
The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has criticised calls for Jonathan’s return, pointing out that many of those now urging him to run were the same people who betrayed him in 2015.
Wike, a PDP member now openly aligned with Tinubu and the APC, advised Jonathan to remain in his current role as an elder statesman rather than return to active politics.
During a media parley on Monday in Abuja, Wike stated, “I know Jonathan well. He values his reputation as a statesman, and I believe he will continue in that role.”
Senate President Godswill Akpabio, who spearheaded Jonathan’s 2015 re-election bid and was once considered a loyalist, is now strategising to deliver the South-South to the APC and Tinubu in 2027—working alongside Wike and former Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole. Even in other zones of the country, Jonathan is not known to have popular political allies.
Our correspondent also learnt that a former senator from Jonathan’s home state of Bayelsa delivered what is being described as a “people’s verdict” to him, advising against a comeback.
The senator, who reportedly met with individuals close to President Tinubu, advised Jonathan not to declare any presidential ambition.
Additionally, two executives from prominent contracting firms were said to have also urged the senator to dissuade Jonathan from contesting.
Jonathan had reportedly met with Bayelsa State Governor Senator Douye Diri to discuss the growing pressure.
“The governor asked for his thoughts, and Jonathan replied that he was still thinking and consulting. The governor said he was hearing it for the first time and didn’t have an opinion yet,” the source said.
A senior source said support from the South-South may not be guaranteed, as most states in the region are now controlled by the APC.
Edo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Delta States are firmly under APC influence, while Rivers is considered as having been politically captured by the ruling party, given the weakened position of suspended Governor Sim Fubara and the influence of Wike’s allies.
It is also believed that Bayelsa, with only eight local governments, may soon fall to the APC, as efforts are underway to woo its governor to defect from the PDP.
Debate Over Suitability Rages as Lawyers Disagree on Eligibility
Legal opinions differ on whether Jonathan is constitutionally eligible to contest the 2027 presidential election.
Lawyers who spoke with LEADERSHIP Weekend said the matter could be tested further in court to enhance legal clarity.
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Abdul Balogun, dismissed arguments against Jonathan’s eligibility.
He noted that a court had already ruled in 2015 that Jonathan was eligible to run.
“In that judgment, the court dismissed the suit challenging his eligibility,” he said.
According to him, those relying on the Fourth Alteration (No. 16) Act—signed by President Muhammadu Buhari on 11 June 2018—may be misapplying the law.
Section 137(3) of the alteration states: “A person who was sworn in to complete the term for which another person was elected as president shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”
Balogun argued that critics “have probably not averted their minds” to related provisions in Section 141 of the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended), and Section 285(13) of the same constitutional alteration.
Constitutional lawyer Barrister Hassan Hassan supported this position, asserting that Jonathan remains constitutionally eligible for a single term.
“Many have referred to Section 137(3) of the 1999 Constitution, but unless a retroactive effect was intended—which it wasn’t—then it does not apply to Jonathan,” he said.
Similarly, Abuja-based lawyer Andrew O. Ekiomu referenced Section 137(1)(b), which states: “A person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if… he has been elected to such office at any two previous elections.”
He argued that the law does not bar a candidate who has been sworn in twice, but only those elected twice.
“As far as I know, Jonathan was elected only once as president and once as vice president. The Constitution does not say ‘sworn in twice’—it says ‘elected twice’. Anything else is mischief,” he said.
