The educational paths chosen during adolescence can have a profound impact on one’s future: enrolling in high school courses that offer college credit increases the likelihood of pursuing higher education, and completing at least 12 credits in the first college year significantly boosts the chances of earning a degree.
These findings, along with countless others, stem from a vast repository of information the federal government has been compiling for over five decades. However, this invaluable data collection initiative was abruptly discontinued earlier this year.
For decades, educators, policymakers, and researchers have depended on this data to draw conclusions and guide decisions affecting American education-from optimizing the roles of high school counselors to determining the ideal timing for students to begin advanced math courses.
In a sudden move last February, the Trump administration, through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), terminated the longstanding high school longitudinal surveys, contracts valued at tens of millions of dollars.
Initiated in 1972, these surveys tracked over 100,000 high school students, following their trajectories into adulthood-sometimes for more than ten years.
“For half a century, we have charted the evolution of our high school system, and now there will be a significant gap,” lamented Adam Gamoran, nominated to lead the Institute of Education Sciences under President Biden but never confirmed. “This is deeply disappointing.”
A spokesperson from the Department of Education stated that the agency is reassessing how longitudinal studies align with the national data collection strategy, focusing on their return on investment for taxpayers. They emphasized that the Institute of Education Sciences remains dedicated to its essential research functions.
The Role of Federal Surveys in Local School Leadership
Quintin Shepherd, superintendent of Pflugerville Independent School District near Austin, Texas, highlighted how these nationally representative surveys serve as benchmarks to evaluate his district’s performance.
“We ask ourselves: How do we compare to others? If we’re excelling, how do we maintain that edge? If we’re behind, where can we improve?” Shepherd explained.
He relies heavily on the longitudinal data and the research it supports to guide improvements. For instance, studies indicating that career and technical education enhances post-high school employment prospects, or that taking algebra early-during middle school or freshman year-better prepares students for college than delaying it.
“Entire education systems and even states have transformed their approaches based on insights from this data,” Shepherd noted.
The Irreplaceable Value of Continuous Data Collection
Since the early 1970s, the federal government has conducted six major longitudinal studies involving high school cohorts.
Each cohort was surveyed multiple times during high school, including input from parents and teachers, and followed up periodically for about a decade. Researchers also gathered academic records and other documentation to monitor progress, resulting in a dataset with thousands of variables.
Longitudinal studies are especially valuable because they reveal trends and causal relationships that single-time-point surveys cannot. However, such studies are rare due to the need for consistent funding over many years.
The canceled contracts included follow-ups with students who graduated during the Great Recession’s aftermath and those who were middle schoolers during the COVID-19 pandemic, surveyed as high school freshmen in 2022. This latter group is expected to graduate this spring.
Elise Christopher, a statistician who managed these longitudinal studies at the National Center for Education Statistics for over 14 years, expressed deep concern after being laid off in March along with many colleagues.
“We can’t simply resume this work later,” she warned about the students graduating next year. “They won’t be in high school anymore, and we’ll lose the chance to understand what motivates their daily attendance.”
Christopher emphasized that researchers aimed to explore persistent issues like chronic absenteeism post-pandemic and whether current students show diminished interest in college compared to earlier generations.
“Every American educated in the last 50 years has benefited from findings derived from these longitudinal surveys,” she affirmed.
Stuart Buck, executive director of the Good Science Project, which advocates for streamlined science funding, remarked, “Even the most staunch libertarian would agree that gathering national statistics is one of the government’s most harmless and beneficial roles.”
He compared the Trump administration’s cuts to “someone claiming to save you money but actually shutting off your electricity.”
An Unfinished Narrative in Education Research
Latrenda Knighten, president of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics and former math educator, highlighted the surveys’ importance for math instruction nationwide.
“From an educator’s perspective, this data is crucial to ensure we provide students with the best foundation during their formative years,” she said.
Knighten and her peers used the studies to identify which math courses most effectively prepare students for college and careers. She noted that insights from current high schoolers are especially vital as technological advancements rapidly reshape the job market.
She likened the survey cancellation to “reading a gripping novel and reaching the climax, only to have the story abruptly end without resolution.”
