Over the past week, Russian military forces have pushed further into Ukrainian territory, asserting control over eight villages along a front stretching approximately 1,250 kilometers (780 miles).
On the occasion of his 73rd birthday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed military leaders, declaring, “Currently, the Russian armed forces maintain full strategic dominance.”
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the captured locations span from north to south and include Otradnoye in Kharkiv, Mayskoye, Siversk Maly, Kuzminovka, and Fedorovka in Donetsk, Verbovoye in Dnipropetrovsk, as well as Novovasylivka and Novohryhorivka in Zaporizhia.
Putin claimed that Russian troops have taken control of nearly 5,000 square kilometers (1,930 square miles) of Ukrainian land so far this year. However, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates the actual area to be closer to 3,434 square kilometers (1,325 square miles).
Regarding the city of Kupiansk in northern Kharkiv, Putin asserted that Russian forces hold two-thirds of it, while ISW reports only about 14% occupation.
Despite these territorial gains, which amount to less than 1% of Ukraine’s total area, the campaign has incurred significant losses.
On Monday, the Ukrainian government’s “I Want to Live” initiative, which offers Russian soldiers safe exit if they surrender, revealed leaked Russian military documents indicating that 281,550 Russian troops were killed, injured, or missing in action during the first eight months of 2025.
Of these casualties, 86,744 deaths were confirmed, with nearly 34,000 soldiers unaccounted for and presumed dead.
The initiative compared these losses to those suffered by Russian forces during their 1939 invasion of Poland and Prussia, yet noted that contemporary Russian commanders have struggled to capture the town of Pokrovsk for several years.
Independent verification of these figures remains unavailable, as neither Russia nor Ukraine regularly disclose precise military casualty numbers.
Pokrovsk, a town in Donetsk with a pre-war population of around 60,000, has been a focal point of Russian attempts to gain control for over a year.
Nearby, 17 kilometers (11 miles) northwest, Russian troops recently attempted to encircle Dobropillia from the north but were repelled, suffering losses of 178 square kilometers (69 square miles) and at least 3,500 personnel since late August, according to Ukrainian command.
Evolving Dynamics in the Air Conflict
Between October 2 and 8, Russian forces launched a series of aerial assaults targeting key Ukrainian cities behind the front lines, deploying 1,523 drones and 93 missiles into Ukrainian airspace.
On Saturday, nearly 500 drones overwhelmed Ukrainian air defenses, allowing a ballistic missile and 13 cruise missiles to strike, resulting in five fatalities.
A similar large-scale combined attack occurred two nights prior.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged, “We were only able to intercept half of the incoming missiles.”
In September alone, Ukraine reported shooting down over 10,000 missiles and drones.
However, analysts have observed an increased success rate for Russian ballistic missile strikes, which are notoriously difficult to intercept due to their high terminal velocity. While Patriot missile systems have historically neutralized many such threats, recent data shows a decline in interception rates.
In the past week, Ukraine intercepted only one out of 14 ballistic missiles, and for the entire month of September, just three out of 21 were stopped.
The Financial Times highlighted a drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate from 37% in August to a mere 6% in October.
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert from Oslo University, suggested that Ukraine might be conserving its Patriot interceptors by deploying only one missile per target instead of multiple, as done previously. He also speculated that Russia may have improved intelligence on Patriot system locations, enabling them to target areas around these defenses.
Russian Strikes on Energy Infrastructure
In a strategic move to undermine Ukrainian morale and readiness for winter, Russia has intensified attacks on gas infrastructure.
On Thursday night, Russian forces targeted facilities belonging to Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state gas and oil company.
Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi reported, “A substantial portion of our infrastructure has been damaged, with some destruction being critical.”
In response, Ukraine plans to boost gas imports by 30% this winter, according to Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk.
President Zelenskyy has also directed electricity providers to stockpile backup equipment in anticipation of further attacks.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Efforts
Ukraine has mounted an aggressive aerial campaign aimed at crippling Russia’s fuel supplies and military logistics, achieving notable successes.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, revealed that at times in September, up to 38% of Russia’s refining capacity was rendered inoperative.
According to industry insiders cited by Reuters, Russian gasoline imports from Belarus surged fourfold in September to 49,000 tonnes, while diesel imports rose to 33,000 tonnes.
Kovalenko explained, “Fuel production dropped by one million tonnes, creating a 20% shortfall relative to domestic demand.” This has forced Russia to rely more heavily on costly imports. “China purchases Russian oil at a 40% discount but resells gasoline with a 40% markup, causing Moscow to lose on both ends.”
On Saturday, Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery near Leningrad for the third time this year, with geolocated footage confirming fires at one of Russia’s five largest refineries.
Two days later, another refinery in Russia’s Bryansk region was targeted.
On Monday, Ukraine’s General Staff announced a strike on the Sverdlov Plant, a major Russian explosives manufacturer producing artillery shells and aerial bombs.
Additionally, Ukrainian drones hit the Feodosia oil transshipment terminal in Crimea, a key supply point for Russian forces occupying Kherson and Zaporizhia, according to Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.
Across the Black Sea, the Tuapse oil refinery was attacked for the second time within a week, and two drones struck the Tyumen Refinery, located over 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) east of Ukraine.
Boosting Ukraine’s Defense Manufacturing
Ukraine has been leveraging its own cost-effective drones to target distant Russian assets. This year, the country aims to increase domestic defense production to $20 billion, a tenfold rise since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, as stated by President Zelenskyy.
He has encouraged Western companies to invest in Ukraine’s defense sector and has proposed reciprocal joint ventures with Western defense industries.
Zelenskyy described this bilateral investment approach as a success, forecasting that drone and missile production alone will reach $35 billion next year during the third International Defence Industries Forum in Kyiv.
The Tomahawk Missile Debate
As former US President Donald Trump deliberates on Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles), Russia has expressed skepticism about the prospects for peace.
Trump and Putin’s meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15 sparked hopes for a ceasefire agreement, but momentum has since stalled.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov commented on Wednesday that efforts to revive peace talks are being undermined by both supporters and opponents of the war, attributing much of the disruption to European actors.
Since Trump’s election last November, Russia has portrayed him as a pragmatic negotiator, contrasting him with Ukraine’s European allies, whom Moscow blames for obstructing peace.
Putin conveyed his disappointment on Sunday, warning on Russian state television that supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would “destroy our relations or at least the positive trends that have emerged.”
When questioned by White House reporters on Monday about his decision, Trump responded, “I’m not looking to escalate that war.”
Moscow has also been unsettled by reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal on October 1 indicating that the US plans to provide Ukraine with intelligence enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. These reports were based on anonymous sources.
