Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently asserted that India has committed to ceasing its purchases of Russian oil. This move aligns with Washington’s strategy to pressure Moscow by cutting off crucial energy revenues that fund Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Trump also mentioned his intention to encourage China to follow suit.
Speaking to the press on Wednesday, Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India would stop buying Russian oil “in a short period.” India and China remain the largest importers of Russian crude transported by sea.
Trump has attempted to use ongoing trade discussions with India as leverage to discourage its reliance on Russian energy. In August, he imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods, citing India’s continued Russian oil imports as justification. However, Modi has maintained a firm stance, with Indian officials emphasizing that Russian energy imports are critical to the country’s national security.
Should India follow through on halting its Russian oil imports, it would mark a significant policy shift from one of Russia’s key energy clients, potentially weakening Moscow’s capacity to sustain its conflict in Ukraine.
Why is Russian oil a point of dispute between India and the United States?
In August, Trump escalated trade tensions by imposing an extra 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total to 50%, specifically targeting India’s ongoing Russian oil purchases. Notably, China, which imports even more Russian crude, has not faced similar punitive tariffs.
According to Chinese customs data, China imported a record 109 million tonnes of Russian crude last year, accounting for nearly 20% of its total energy imports. India’s imports stood at 88 million tonnes in 2024.
India has accused the U.S. of unfairly singling it out with these tariffs. Analysts suggest that Trump’s hardline approach partly stems from frustration over India’s resistance to his trade demands.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, explained, “India’s persistent protectionist policies, including high tariffs on agricultural products and pharmaceutical subsidies, have been sticking points in trade negotiations with the U.S.”
Conversely, Trump has taken a more conciliatory stance toward China, possibly aiming to secure a comprehensive trade agreement that includes access to China’s rare-earth minerals.
Rare earth elements, a group of 17 critical minerals, are essential for manufacturing sectors such as automotive and defense industries in the U.S. China dominates their extraction and processing and currently restricts exports of 12 of these minerals.
“China wields greater influence, as demonstrated by its recent export controls,” Garcia Herrero noted.
This week, China introduced new export restrictions requiring foreign companies to obtain special permissions to purchase certain rare-earth products, just ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
In response, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 but indicated that the summit with Xi would likely proceed: “I’m going to be there regardless, so I assume we might have it,” he told reporters.
How dependent is India on Russian energy supplies?
Russia is India’s largest oil supplier. Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler shows that in September, India imported 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, with Russian crude making up approximately 1.6 million bpd-about 34% of the total.
This represents a staggering 2,250% increase since January 2022, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when India’s imports from Russia were only 68,000 bpd.
India ranks as the second-largest purchaser of Russian energy after China. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China accounted for 47% of Russia’s crude exports in September, with India following at 38%.
What explains India’s surge in Russian oil imports?
In December 2022, Western countries imposed a $60 price ceiling on Russian crude to limit Moscow’s war funding. This forced Russia to offer discounted prices to attract buyers willing to use Western shipping and insurance services.
The availability of cheaper Russian oil helped India reduce its current account deficit by 65% in 2023-2024 compared to the previous year. Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s leading importer of Russian seaborne crude, emerged as a major beneficiary.
At Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery, the share of Russian crude imports rose from just 3% in 2021 to nearly 50% by 2025, according to CREA.
CREA also reported that from February 2022 to July 2025, the Jamnagar refinery exported $85.9 billion worth of refined products worldwide, with an estimated 42% ($36 billion) going to countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
How has India reacted to Trump’s recent statements?
India has not officially confirmed Trump’s assertion that it has agreed to halt Russian oil imports.
Despite the additional U.S. tariffs, India continues to justify its Russian oil purchases amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Shri Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s External Affairs Ministry, reiterated this position on Thursday while suggesting India might diversify its energy sources in the future.
In an official release, he stated: “Our energy policy prioritizes stable prices and secure supplies, which includes broadening our energy sourcing and diversifying as needed.”
He further added, “Regarding the U.S., we have long sought to expand energy cooperation. The current administration has expressed interest in deepening this partnership, and discussions are ongoing.”
Garcia Herrero predicted, “In the next three to six months, U.S.-India trade relations are likely to settle into a cautious but pragmatic truce, with tariffs easing if India reduces Russian oil imports, potentially leading to a limited agreement by early 2026.”
