Recent developments suggest that the African Democratic Congress (ADC), an opposition alliance, is encountering challenges in establishing a significant political presence in the South-West region.
Despite appointing former two-term governor and ex-minister Rauf Aregbesola as its national secretary, the ADC has yet to gain substantial traction in the South-West, which is widely recognized as President Bola Tinubu’s political bastion.
Previously a close confidant and political partner of President Tinubu, Aregbesola’s efforts to rally support for the ADC in this region have not yielded the expected results.
Attempts to obtain comments from the ADC’s national publicity secretary, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, on the matter were unsuccessful at the time of reporting.
Insiders reveal that despite Aregbesola’s extensive political connections and experience, persuading South-Western voters to embrace the ADC as a viable alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 elections remains an uphill battle.
Aside from Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, the Labour Party’s 2023 Lagos governorship candidate who recently defected to the ADC with his supporters, no other prominent political figure from the South-West has openly aligned with the party.
Dr. Kayode Fayemi, a former Ekiti State governor, who was rumored to be affiliated with the coalition by his ally Rt Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, has since publicly distanced himself from the ADC.
While the ADC has attracted some notable leaders from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the national level amid the PDP’s ongoing internal conflicts, this trend has not extended to the South-West. For example, Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke recently dismissed rumors of plans to switch allegiance from the PDP to the ADC.
It is worth noting that in the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu secured victories in only four out of the six South-West states, amassing 2,279,407 votes in the region.
Looking ahead to 2027, the president and his political strategists are aiming to capture all six South-West states, with particular focus on Lagos. Despite Tinubu’s eight-year tenure as Lagos governor and his strong influence over the state’s political landscape, he lost Lagos to Labour Party’s presidential candidate Peter Obi in 2023.
To reinforce his dominance, President Tinubu is reportedly leveraging appointments, patronage, and engaging politicians through independent support groups that are actively mobilizing for his 2027 re-election campaign.
This political consolidation has made it increasingly difficult for Aregbesola, known for his grassroots mobilization skills, to elevate the ADC’s profile in the South-West.
An insider from the APC in Ondo State recounted how Aregbesola sought to capitalize on the internal strife within the ruling party following Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s assumption of office on 27 December 2023, after the passing of Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu.
Ondo State, alongside Osun and Lagos, was anticipated to be a strategic stronghold for Aregbesola’s ADC efforts.
“Having grown up and been educated in Ondo State, Aregbesola has long been involved in its political affairs. In 2012, he spearheaded the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) governorship campaign and appointed several Ondo indigenes to his Osun government. His presence is felt across nearly every local government in Ondo. Those who appointed him as ADC national secretary recognized his capabilities,” the source explained.
“He aimed to exploit the fractures within the Ondo APC, aware that Governor Aiyedatiwa had marginalized loyalists of the late Akeredolu and rivals from the 2024 APC governorship primaries. He also knew about attempts by some of Aiyedatiwa’s aides to unseat the APC state chairman, Ade Adetimehin.”
“Some disgruntled APC members even met with Aregbesola, contemplating a defection to the ADC after feeling politically sidelined. Meanwhile, Aiyedatiwa’s supporters were confident it was their turn to dominate and phase out veteran politicians.”
“However, the Minister of Interior, Hon. Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, intervened promptly after learning of these plans, stabilizing the APC in Ondo State,” the source added.
The minister reportedly urged the aggrieved politicians to stay within the APC, emphasizing their collective role in delivering the highest vote share for Tinubu in 2023 and the benefits of maintaining unity to secure another victory for the president.
This intervention partly explains why Aregbesola’s visit to Akure soon after his ADC appointment failed to attract significant political support.
Following the minister’s involvement, three key pro-Tinubu groups emerged in Ondo State: the Grassroots Movement for Tinubu (GMT), the Asiwaju Mandate Group (AMG), and the PBAT Continuity Project. These organizations are tasked with rallying APC members and the wider populace ahead of the 2027 elections.
These groups enjoy the backing of the Interior Minister and serve to engage sidelined politicians, fostering a sense of inclusion within APC activities.
GMT is led by Hon. Saka Yusuf, a former sports commissioner under the late Akeredolu administration. AMG’s director-general is Olumuyiwa Asagunla, while Pastor Femi Agagu, a former education commissioner, heads the PBAT Continuity Project.
There have been claims that Governor Aiyedatiwa is attempting to outlaw these groups in favor of his own pro-Tinubu faction, “Ondo State for Tinubu 2027.” However, the governor refutes these allegations, stating he only encouraged all independent pro-Tinubu groups to coordinate their efforts with the official party structure.
Currently, the ADC faces significant hurdles in solidifying its presence in Tinubu’s home territory. For Aregbesola, once a close ally of the president, the challenge lies in positioning the ADC as a credible contender in the 2027 elections.
ADC Gains Momentum in Ekiti, Affirms Party Leader Bejide
Contrasting the broader regional struggles, Chief Bejide Dare, an ADC leader in Ekiti State, asserts that the party is firmly established and poised to make a significant impact in the 2026 governorship race and the 2027 general elections.
Bejide, a former Nigerian Ambassador to Canada, highlighted the growing popularity of the ADC in Ekiti, noting a steady influx of new members daily.
“Members from the ruling APC, PDP, and other parties are defecting en masse to join the ADC,” he stated.
He attributed his own departure from the PDP to the party’s capture by influential power brokers, which also prompted several of his political allies to leave.
“Democracy seems to have eroded within the APC as well, prompting many to seek a platform where democratic principles thrive. The ADC is committed to conducting transparent primaries, unlike other parties that impose candidates. Those disenchanted with their current parties are gravitating towards the ADC, and we are actively engaging with them,” Bejide concluded.
