During a joint appearance on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood alongside former US President Donald Trump and declared his acceptance of Trump’s proposed framework to conclude Israel’s conflict in Gaza.
However, hours later, addressing his Israeli audience in Hebrew, Netanyahu clarified that his endorsement did not extend to recognizing a Palestinian state, emphasizing that Israeli forces would continue to maintain a presence across much of Gaza.
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Trump’s 20-point proposal ostensibly aligns with many of Israel’s declared objectives in the war: securing the release of Israeli hostages, dismantling Hamas’s military and political infrastructure, and establishing a provisional international governance in Gaza that poses minimal threat to Israeli security.
Yet, for Netanyahu, endorsing this plan carries significant political and personal ramifications. His administration has largely hinged on a steadfast commitment to continuing the conflict. The pressing question remains: is Netanyahu prepared to bring an end to a war that has resulted in over 66,000 Palestinian casualties, or will he seek alternative means to extend the hostilities?
Strategic Calculation
Beyond meeting Israel’s key demands, Trump’s Gaza initiative offers Netanyahu an opportunity to frame himself as a triumphant wartime leader ahead of the upcoming elections and any investigations into governmental shortcomings that may have contributed to the Hamas attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg noted, “This deal enables Netanyahu to craft a compelling narrative: ‘I led the war effort, decimated Gaza’s militant capabilities, and demonstrated unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. Now, it’s time for pragmatic decisions.'”
Goldberg added, “The essence here is narrative control rather than objective facts.”
This narrative is crucial for Netanyahu, who, despite being Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, faces intense domestic opposition due to his policies, ongoing corruption allegations, and criticism over his handling of hostage negotiations.
His coalition depends heavily on far-right figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose support is contingent on continuing-and even intensifying-the military campaign in Gaza.
Some observers speculate that Netanyahu might deliberately prolong the conflict to delay potential imprisonment from his corruption trial or to avoid inquiries into his government’s failures preceding the October 2023 Hamas assault-investigations that have already led to the resignations of Israel’s military chief and the head of Shin Bet, the domestic intelligence agency.
Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas remarked, “The risks remain high. Unlike President Biden, Netanyahu cannot count on unwavering Republican support to bypass the US president. Trump holds significant leverage and can complicate Netanyahu’s position if he chooses.”
Pinkas further explained that Netanyahu was likely instructed to publicly endorse the plan in the US, preventing him from privately agreeing and then presenting a contradictory stance domestically. “By making the agreement public, Netanyahu is constrained from denying it later,” he said.
Resistance from the Far Right
Throughout the conflict, protests demanding negotiations to end the war and secure the release of Israeli captives have persisted. Polls indicate that a majority of Israelis favor ending the hostilities. Opposition members in the Knesset, led by Yair Lapid, have repeatedly offered Netanyahu the parliamentary support necessary to approve a ceasefire, making acceptance of the US proposal both politically feasible and publicly supported.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu has consistently aligned with far-right factions that reject ending the war. These groups advocate for Israel’s full control over Gaza, envisioning Jewish settlements there while displacing Palestinian residents.
Finance Minister Smotrich publicly denounced the Trump plan on social media, labeling it “a profound diplomatic failure that ignores the lessons of October 7 and, in my view, will end in sorrow.”
Itamar Ben-Gvir is also anticipated to reject the agreement, though his current grievances focus on Netanyahu’s reported apology to Qatar-allegedly under US pressure-for Israel’s unprovoked strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha last September.
For the far-right settler movement, the plan is a setback but not unexpected. Ben-Gvir views it as a temporary obstacle in his broader populist strategy aimed at deepening divisions and intensifying hardships for Palestinians.
Goldberg commented, “Smotrich and the settler community will be disappointed, but this is the reality. They had hoped this would be a decisive war leading to their ultimate victory. Instead, it’s just another Netanyahu performance. Ben-Gvir will likely feign indifference publicly, refuse to endorse the plan, yet remain within the cabinet.”
He added, “This extends beyond the cabinet. The Knesset is expected to back the deal, with self-described ‘liberals’ rallying behind what they’ll brand a ‘peace agreement.’ But in the context of ongoing violence and suffering, the true meaning of ‘peace’ remains ambiguous.”
Complex Dynamics at Play
While Netanyahu may attempt to portray himself as Israel’s defender, analysts argue he is constrained by political realities and focused primarily on his own survival.
Pinkas speculated, “Netanyahu will likely attempt to quietly undermine the plan. He’ll claim the need for further review, cite minor security concerns, and delay implementation. Simultaneously, he’ll escalate military actions in Gaza and intensify rhetoric against Iran. In a few weeks, circumstances will shift, rendering the plan obsolete, and Trump’s focus will have moved elsewhere.”
Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House echoed this view, emphasizing Netanyahu’s preoccupation with political survival. “If key right-wing figures like Ben-Gvir or Smotrich abandon the coalition, Netanyahu might call early elections, touting his achievements: dismantling Hamas, securing hostages, and establishing international presence in Gaza,” Mekelberg said. “He could claim, ‘We defeated Hamas and protected Israel.'”
However, Mekelberg cautioned that once the conflict concludes, Netanyahu may find himself increasingly isolated, with rivals within Likud, the far right, opposition parties, and ultra-Orthodox allies sensing vulnerability. “Never underestimate Netanyahu’s political savvy, but he is undeniably cornered,” he concluded.
