What Comes After the Gaza Ceasefire Takes Hold? Here’s What to Expect | NPR

Israel and Hamas have consented to initiate the “first phase” of a peace proposal championed by President Donald Trump aimed at halting the intense conflict in Gaza.

This plan commences with a ceasefire, anticipated to be implemented shortly after Israel’s Cabinet endorses the truce agreement, which was negotiated indirectly in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The Cabinet’s vote on this accord is scheduled for Thursday.

According to a source familiar with the Egyptian-led negotiations who spoke off the record, and after reviewing the agreement under consideration by the Israeli Cabinet, here is what is expected to unfold once the deal is ratified:

• The ceasefire is set to begin Thursday night or Friday, within 24 hours following the Cabinet’s approval.
• Simultaneously, Israel will start withdrawing its military forces from designated areas in Gaza, retreating to a pre-agreed boundary.
• Following this initial 24-hour window, Hamas will have a 72-hour timeframe to release the 20 hostages still alive, with President Trump suggesting this could occur by Monday or Tuesday.
• As hostages are freed, Israel will reciprocate by releasing approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees.
• There remain 28 hostages presumed deceased; Hamas has indicated that recovering their remains, some buried beneath rubble, will require additional time.
• By Monday, humanitarian aid convoys-comprising hundreds of trucks-are expected to enter Gaza. The U.N. humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, confirmed that 170,000 metric tons of medical supplies and relief materials are prepared, pending clearance.

President Trump has announced plans to visit the region soon, with the White House coordinating the schedule. He intends to travel to Egypt for an official signing ceremony and has been invited to address the Israeli Knesset.

Despite these developments, the situation remains fragile. For instance, Reuters reports ongoing disputes over the list of Palestinian prisoners slated for release.

Achieving a durable peace will be even more challenging. Subsequent stages of President Trump’s comprehensive 20-point plan require further dialogue on critical matters, such as Hamas’s future role and governance of Gaza post-conflict.

Key elements of the peace framework include:

• Gaza will initially be administered by a provisional committee composed of technocrats, including qualified Palestinians and international experts, tasked with managing public services. This committee will operate under the supervision of a newly established international transitional authority named the “Board of Peace,” chaired by President Trump.
• Residents of Gaza will have the freedom to remain or relocate as they choose, with encouragement to stay and participate in rebuilding efforts aimed at creating a more prosperous Gaza.
• Hamas and allied groups must relinquish any governing authority in Gaza and agree to disarm, with weapons handed over under the oversight of independent monitors.
• An “International Stabilization Force,” coordinated by the U.S. alongside Arab and other nations, will be deployed immediately. This force will train vetted Palestinian police and serve as an internal security presence, also securing border areas with Israel and Egypt.
• Israel will refrain from occupying or annexing Gaza. The Israeli military is expected to withdraw gradually, maintaining only a security perimeter presence.
• The plan envisions establishing a credible path toward Palestinian self-determination and statehood, acknowledging this as a core aspiration of the Palestinian people.

However, Hamas has consistently refused Israel’s demands to disarm. Following the announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that Israel has not consented to the creation of a Palestinian state.

The proposed “Board of Peace” has sparked controversy, particularly due to the involvement of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair remains a contentious figure, especially in the Middle East, due to his support for the 2003 Iraq invasion. Additionally, his think tank has faced criticism over leaked proposals to transform Gaza into a “Trump Riviera.”

Securing agreement from all parties on these terms is a complex endeavor. Even after a peace deal is finalized, implementing it amid the devastation in Gaza-where vast areas have been leveled by airstrikes and ground operations, and the population deeply traumatized-will present an immense challenge.

Contributions to this report were made by Aya Batrawy from Dubai, Itay Stern from Tel Aviv, and Michele Kelemen from Washington, D.C.