Potential Government Shutdown Threatens Timely Release of Crucial Economic Reports: NPR

The scheduled release of an important jobs report this Friday has been postponed because of the current government shutdown. This delay means that employers and policymakers will lack updated information on labor market conditions at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.

If the shutdown continues beyond a few days, the mid-October inflation report may also face delays. This particular report plays a critical role in determining the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries in the upcoming year.

The Labor Department’s data analysis division is among the many federal agencies halted by the shutdown. A similar interruption in 2013 caused significant postponements in the release of essential economic data, lasting over two weeks.

This disruption occurs during a delicate phase for the economy. Recent months have seen a notable slowdown in hiring, with government data revealing that employers reduced payrolls in June for the first time since 2020. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking its highest level in nearly four years. The September employment figures would typically provide clarity on whether these trends persisted into the fall season.

Growing concerns about labor market softness led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September-their first cut this year. With another rate decision approaching in about a month, Fed officials are eager to access the latest employment and unemployment data to guide their policy choices.

Potential Delays in Consumer Price Index Data

Inflation has edged upward recently, partly influenced by tariffs imposed during the previous administration. Consumer prices in August increased by 2.9% compared to the same month last year, up from a 2.7% rise in July. The inflation report for September, scheduled for release on October 15, is crucial because the cost-of-living figures from July through September are used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA.

Although alternative economic indicators exist, none offer the comprehensive scope of federal data collection, which surveys tens of thousands of households and businesses monthly. Prior to the shutdown, staffing reductions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics had already forced cutbacks in monthly price data collection. During the shutdown, the agency will suspend all data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Once funding resumes, the BLS will return to normal operations and provide an updated timeline for releasing delayed reports.