Summary of significant developments on day 1,314 of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Date: September 30, 2025
Combat Updates
- Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that his military is making headway in what he termed a “just struggle” in Ukraine. He emphasized that Russian troops and commanders are actively advancing, with the entire nation united in this effort.
- Putin authorized a decree mandating the conscription of 135,000 men aged 18 to 30, to be drafted between October 1 and December 31, according to the official government publication Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
- Ukraine’s armed forces reported downing a Russian helicopter near Kotlyarivka village in the Donetsk region using a remotely piloted drone.
- A Russian drone strike on Monday night tragically killed a family of four, including two children, in the northeastern Sumy area, as confirmed by Oleh Hryhorov, head of the regional military administration, via Telegram.
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces have reclaimed over 170 square kilometers (approximately 66 square miles) near Dobropillia in the east, with Russian casualties estimated at nearly 3,200 soldiers during the counteroffensive.
- However, the Ukrainian war blog DeepState reported that Ukrainian troops withdrew from the village of Poltavka, located east of Dobropillia in Donetsk.
- Russia’s Ministry of Defence stated that its air defense intercepted four HIMARS rockets and three Neptune missiles launched by Ukraine within the last 24 hours.
- Russian forces claimed to have targeted Ukrainian aviation repair facilities and several temporary military bases, capturing the settlements of Shandriglovo and Zarichne northeast of Sloviansk in Donetsk.
- From Sunday night to early Monday, Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 78 Ukrainian drones across the Bryansk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Moscow, and Kursk regions.
- A fire caused by a Ukrainian drone strike resulted in the deaths of a child and grandmother in a town near Moscow, according to local authorities.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported 136 engagements with Russian troops over the past 24 hours leading up to Monday.
- Ukrainian air defense forces claimed to have neutralized 23 drones in northern and eastern Ukraine, while nine drones successfully struck targets at eight different locations.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been without external power for six consecutive days following recent attacks near the facility, with both Russia and Ukraine blaming each other.
Security in the Region
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Europe is “not at war but no longer at peace” with Russia, describing the conflict as an assault on democracy and freedom, and warning that Moscow aims to fracture EU unity.
- Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius affirmed the country’s commitment to safeguarding the Baltic states and responding collectively to Russian threats, labeling Russia as NATO’s most immediate and serious danger.
- Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Sakaliene highlighted recent Russian airspace violations over Lithuania, urging NATO to transition from mere “air policing” to comprehensive “air defense.”
- The European Commission unveiled plans for a drone defense system along the EU’s eastern border, which is also intended to develop offensive drone capabilities.
- Poland’s Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed interest in fostering collaboration between the EU and Ukraine on drone technology development.
- President Zelenskyy proposed establishing a joint air defense shield with allied nations to counter Russian aerial threats, addressing the Warsaw Security Forum via video link.
- Four NATO and EU member states bordering Russia announced plans to construct reinforced bunkers and deploy anti-drone nets at critical energy infrastructure to protect against Russian drone attacks.
- Draft budget documents indicate a slight reduction in Russia’s national defense spending for 2026, with planned expenditures of 13 trillion roubles ($157 billion), down from this year’s record 13.5 trillion roubles ($162 billion), though increases remain possible if necessary.
- New fragments of drones were discovered in Romania’s eastern Tulcea county, near Ukraine, according to Defence Minister Ionut Mosteanu, who noted that such incidents have been common over the past three and a half years.
Military Assistance
- Russian officials are evaluating the potential sale of US Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which would enable strikes deep within Russian territory. Experts warn this could significantly escalate the conflict, with Dalibor Rohac of The American Enterprise Institute calling it a “game changer” that would extend Ukraine’s strike range.
Diplomatic and Political Developments
- President Putin enacted legislation withdrawing Russia from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, a key treaty designed to protect the rights of detainees, including prisoners.
- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban dismissed Ukraine’s sovereignty, denying allegations that Hungarian reconnaissance drones violated Ukrainian airspace. He claimed Ukraine is financially supported by the West and Hungary.
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Orban of being influenced by Russian propaganda in a post on X.
- Hungary announced it is blocking access to 12 Ukrainian news websites following Kyiv’s earlier move to restrict eight Hungarian-language portals, including the pro-government site origo.hu, citing pro-Russian content concerns.
- The Council of Europe honored Ukrainian journalist and human rights advocate Maksym Butkevych with its 2025 human rights award. Butkevych, who joined the Ukrainian military and was released after being captured by Russian forces, was recognized for his courage.
- Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, led by President Maia Sandu, secured a decisive victory over the Russian-aligned Patriotic Bloc in a crucial parliamentary election, according to Monday’s results.
Economic Impact
- In Russian-occupied Crimea, fuel prices have been frozen and petrol rationing introduced due to shortages caused by a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. Governor Sergei Aksyonov announced motorists will be limited to purchasing 30 liters (about 8 gallons) of fuel per transaction.
- UK Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves warned that ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, combined with trade tensions from former US President Trump’s tariff policies, are creating severe global economic challenges. She indicated that difficult fiscal decisions lie ahead when presenting the UK budget in November.
Sanctions and International Reactions
- The International Paralympic Committee’s recent decision to lift the suspension of Russia and Belarus from its events has been described as a “bold move” but also criticized as potentially premature given the ongoing war, according to former IOC executive Terence Burn.
