Near Dhanbad in Jharkhand, India, large piles of coal are loaded onto freight trains in August. India ranks as the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally and depends heavily on coal for its electricity supply.
VISHAL KUMAR SINGH/AFP
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VISHAL KUMAR SINGH/AFP
Global production of coal, oil, and natural gas continues to exceed sustainable levels, undermining the climate targets established a decade ago under the Paris Agreement. This international accord aimed to curb greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.
A recent report spearheaded by the Stockholm Environment Institute reveals that by 2030, nations intend to extract more than double the fossil fuel quantities compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Released ahead of the upcoming United Nations climate summit in Belém, Brazil, this November, the 2025 Production Gap Report coincides with countries submitting their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These NDCs outline each country’s progress and commitments toward drastically reducing emissions as stipulated by the Paris Agreement.
The analysis highlights that the top 20 fossil fuel-producing countries-including China, the United States, and India-have increased their planned production compared to two years ago, when the previous report was published.
Derik Broekhoff, senior scientist at SEI and co-author of the report, explained during a press briefing, “The near-term production gap has widened, with projected 2030 fossil fuel output exceeding the 1.5-degree pathway by over 120%, up from 110% last year.”
China is a significant contributor to this upward trend, as it now intends to phase down coal mining at a slower pace than previously projected. Given that China accounts for more than half of global coal production, its policies heavily influence worldwide figures. Coal remains the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, contributing disproportionately to climate pollution.
Melanie Robinson, global climate director at the World Resources Institute, emphasized the urgency during a recent briefing. She noted that at the 2023 UN climate conference in Dubai, countries assessed their progress and recognized the necessity to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy deployment, double energy efficiency, halt deforestation, and reduce emissions from transportation. “This is not a wish list but a mandatory action plan. Nations committed to these measures in Dubai, and now it’s time to act,” Robinson stated.
This report does not factor in recent policy shifts under the Trump administration, which aim to expand U.S. fossil fuel production and restrict growth in renewable energy sectors like wind and solar. The data reflects conditions during President Biden’s tenure.
Although the Trump administration has introduced numerous executive orders and regulatory rollbacks affecting climate and energy policies, these changes are expected to take time to fully materialize. State and local governments continue to uphold Paris Agreement objectives, and many corporate investments remain aligned with Biden-era climate legislation.
Neil Grant, analyst at Climate Analytics and co-author of the report, remarked, “The extent to which the Trump administration’s policies will impact global climate efforts remains uncertain.”
Trump has initiated the process to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, a move he first pursued during his initial term. His administration has proposed repealing emissions limits on fossil fuel power plants, rescinding a 2009 determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health, and removing vehicle emissions standards.
Lee Zeldin, head of the Environmental Protection Agency, has publicly praised these rollbacks, stating in March, “We are dismantling the climate change agenda to reduce living costs for American families, boost domestic energy production, revive auto manufacturing jobs, and more.”
Grant believes the global impact of these U.S. policy reversals will depend on whether other nations follow suit. “Between 2016 and 2020, Trump attempted to derail climate action and the Paris Agreement, but ultimately failed. I am confident that history will repeat itself,” he said.
For now, most countries remain committed to their Paris Agreement pledges, despite this report’s indication that current trajectories fall short. The authors stress that meeting these climate goals will require an accelerated and substantial reduction in fossil fuel extraction and consumption moving forward.
