The soybean harvest is currently underway across the United States, and in the rural landscapes of Maryland, farmer Travis Hutchison inspects a pod, noting that the crop is approaching the ideal dryness for harvesting.
However, even a solid yield this season does not guarantee financial stability for Hutchison, as China-previously the largest purchaser of American soybeans-has halted its imports amid escalating trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump’s stringent tariff policies.
“Soybean prices have plummeted due to the ongoing trade conflict,” Hutchison shared with AFP.
At 54, he expressed cautious support for the president’s approach: “I wasn’t opposed to the administration’s efforts because we needed improved trade agreements. I just hoped the dispute would be resolved more quickly.”
China, the world’s second-largest economy, accounted for over half of the $24.5 billion in U.S. soybean exports projected for 2024. Yet, this year, the value of exports to China has dropped by more than 50 percent as Chinese buyers have refrained from placing new orders.
Consequently, soybean prices have declined roughly 40 percent compared to three years ago, reflecting diminished demand.
Following the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods during Trump’s second term, China retaliated by levying a 20 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans.
The American Soybean Association (ASA) notes that these tariffs render U.S. soybeans “significantly more expensive” than those from South American competitors, intensifying the pressure on American farmers.
In a recent move, Argentina lifted its export tax on major crops such as soybeans, further enticing Chinese buyers away from U.S. suppliers.
While Trump promised to use tariff revenues to support American farmers, specifics on this assistance remain unclear.
Just last Friday, the president threatened to impose an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods and to cancel negotiations with President Xi Jinping concerning China’s restrictions on rare earth exports.
Caleb Ragland, president of the ASA, described these developments as “deeply disheartening at a time when soybean farmers are already grappling with mounting financial hardships.”
Scott Gerlt, ASA’s chief economist, highlighted that the impact is particularly severe in Midwestern states such as North and South Dakota.
“This year is shaping up to be extremely challenging,” said Maryland farmer David Burrier from Union Bridge. “Approximately 40 percent of our planted acres will likely break even or operate at a loss.”
Burrier warned that a complete halt in Chinese soybean purchases would be catastrophic, likening it to a “four-alarm fire.”
Between 2018 and 2019, retaliatory tariffs led to over $27 billion in losses for U.S. agricultural exports. The federal government responded with $23 billion in aid to farmers affected by the trade disputes.
However, Gerlt pointed out that farmers are entering this trade conflict under increased financial strain.
While crop revenues have declined, expenses for essentials like fertilizers and machinery have surged due to the tariffs.
“The cost of parts to repair combines and planters has risen because of these tariffs,” Hutchison explained. “This will definitely squeeze our profit margins.”
According to Iowa State University’s Professor Chad Hart, farm bankruptcies in the U.S. have risen by approximately 50 percent compared to 2024.
When asked if the economic challenges have altered his support for Trump, Hutchison hesitated before responding, “It certainly makes me reconsider.”
